Pemodelan dan Peramalan Beban Listrik Jangka Pendek Menggunakan ARIMAX dengan Variabel Eksogen Parameter Kelistrikan

Rizka Yusvida; Dwi Heru Siswantoro; Sekar Sari; Mokhammad Firmansyah

doi:10.30595/jrre.v8i1.28814

Authors

Rizka Yusvida Politeknik Internasional Tamansiswa Mojokerto
Dwi Heru Siswantoro Politeknik Internasional Tamansiswa Mojokerto
Sekar Sari Politeknik Internasional Tamansiswa Mojokerto https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9436-255X
Mokhammad Firmansyah Politeknik Internasional Tamansiswa Mojokerto

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30595/jrre.v8i1.28814

Keywords:

peramalan beban, ARIMAX, power meter, ESP32, deret waktu

Abstract

Peramalan beban listrik jangka pendek merupakan komponen penting dalam pengelolaan sistem tenaga, terutama untuk mendukung penjadwalan operasi dan pengambilan keputusan pada level distribusi dan gedung. Penelitian ini menyajikan pemodelan dan peramalan beban listrik jangka pendek menggunakan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) berbasis data hasil pengukuran Power Meter Schneider PowerLogic PM800 yang direkam oleh data logger berbasis ESP32. Data diambil pada salah satu gedung dengan interval pencatatan 5 menit dan menghasilkan 4.789 sampel setelah proses pra-pemrosesan. Daya aktif total (P Total) digunakan sebagai variabel terikat, sedangkan arus rata-rata tiga fasa (IAVE), tegangan rata-rata antar fasa (V LL-Ave), dan faktor daya (PF) digunakan sebagai variabel eksogen yang secara fisis berkaitan dengan persamaan daya tiga fasa.

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