PERAMALAN HASIL PRODUKSI PADI DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE HYBRID SARIMA-FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN

Abstract

Rice production is an agricultural product that involves planting, caring for, and fertilizing rice seeds regularly so that it can produce quality rice.  The research objective of this study is focused on rice production in Central Java Province because of the importance of rice as a national food buffer. The Hybrid Model is a combination of two time series models to increase accuracy and uses both methods to reduce the shortcomings of each method. The research method used is the hybrid SARIMA-Fuzzy time series chen. The research results obtained a SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model and a fuzzy Chen model created with the smallest MSE value of 0.00000003333. Based on Chen's hybrid SARIMA fuzzy time series model, the predicted value of rice production in January 2023 is 257,561 tons.