Mitigasi Shadow Economy dalam Era Smart Digital Finance: Analisis Machine Learning atas Tata Kelola Institusional Negara-Negara OECD dan Implikasinya bagi Kebijakan Keuangan Digital Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30595/ratio.v6i2.30057Keywords:
shadow economy, machine learning, efektivitas pemerintah, fiskal, keuangan digital, oecd, kebijakan publik indonesiaAbstract
Keberadaan shadow economy menjadi tantangan struktural yang menggerus basis pajak dan mendistorsi indikator ekonomi, khususnya bagi negara berkembang. Penelitian ini menginvestigasi determinan utama fenomena tersebut di negara-negara OECD menggunakan pendekatan Machine Learning untuk menyusun peta jalan kebijakan yang relevan bagi Indonesia. Model prediksi yang dibangun menunjukkan performa presisi dengan validasi silang yang menghasilkan rata-rata dari R² sebesar 0.88 dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 8.15%, memastikan robustas analisis dalam memetakan variabel prediktor. Analisis interpretabilitas model melalui SHAP values mengungkapkan temuan krusial bahwa efektivitas pemerintah (government effectiveness) adalah determinan tunggal paling dominan, jauh melampaui variabel makroekonomi seperti PDB maupun perihal fiskal. Di samping itu, data menunjukkan korelasi negatif yang kuat (-0.46), di mana peningkatan kualitas tata kelola dan adopsi e-government secara signifikan menekan aktivitas ekonomi bawah tanah. Berdasarkan bukti empiris ini, penelitian merekomendasikan peta jalan bagi Indonesia yang bergeser dari pendekatan ekonomi murni menuju reformasi institusional dan transformasi digital birokrasi sebagai strategi utama formalisasi ekonomiwork discipline systems to improve the quality of public service.
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